Gold price
is rising another session in a row together with the broad precious metals
market, benefiting among other things from dollar weakness during the Wednesday
November 26, 2025 trading session.
We’re
paying $4,167.47 per ounce according to spot pricing, which means a 0.85%
increase compared to yesterday’s close, while the yellow metal reached session
highs at $4,169, the highest levels in nearly two weeks since November 14.
Why is gold
going up today? The rally is primarily driven by a surge in Federal Reserve
rate cut expectations for December, with odds jumping from just 50% a week
earlier to over 80% currently, following a string of weak US economic data that
reinforced accommodation hopes.
Moreover,
some of Wall Street’s global fund managers share a bullish gold price
prediction of $6,000 per ounce by year-end 2026. In this article, I analyze
XAU/USD technical chart to see if it is possible.
According
to my technical analysis, the situation in the gold market has changed little
over the past month, with prices moving in the same consolidation whose lower
boundary marks around $3,900 per ounce and upper boundary reaches toward
historical maximums just below $4,400 per ounce. This consolidation is
additionally strengthened from below by the round $4,000 level and the 50-day
exponential moving average, providing solid technical support.
Gold price today. Source: Tradingview.com
Even if
this range were to be broken to the downside, I would still remain bullishly
positioned on gold prices because a very wide support zone exists in the range
between $3,300 and $3,450 at the height of historical peaks from April and
subsequent months through July.
At this
place, the 200-day exponential moving average (200 EMA) also falls, which
separates the bull trend from the bear trend. So there’s quite a lot of room
for a technical downward correction and then a bounce at more attractive
prices.
Gold Technical Levels
|
Key Level |
Price Zone |
Technical Significance |
|
Current Price |
$4,167 |
Up 0.85%, highest since Nov 14 |
|
Session High |
$4,169 |
Two-week peak |
|
Consolidation Upper |
$4,400 |
Historical highs, resistance boundary |
|
Immediate Resistance |
$4,200-$4,210 |
Local |
|
Consolidation Lower |
$3,900 |
Support boundary, 50 EMA zone |
|
Round Support |
$4,000 |
Psychological level strengthening base |
|
Wide Support Zone |
$3,300-$3,450 |
April-July |
|
100% Fibonacci |
$5,000 |
Extension |
|
161.8% Fibonacci |
$5,500+ |
Ultimate bullish extension target |
How High Can Gold Go?
If we
wanted to forecast gold’s bullish scenario, it’s worth using Fibonacci
extensions here. In my analysis, I measured the upward move from July lows to
the historical highs, then the downward correction observed at the end of
October. Such measurement produces a 100% Fibonacci extension at the round
$5,000 level and a 161.8% extension at a level above $5,500.
Gold price prediction based on my technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com
“The gold
supporting factor is increasingly clear expectations for a December rate cut
from the Fed, especially as yesterday’s delayed macro data fell below
expectations,” Konrad Ryczko, analyst at DM BOŚ, commented.
“Locally
there’s a test of resistance at $4,200-$4,210, whose breakout would most likely
open the path to approach recent peaks around $4,370,” he added.
Check also my other articles and forecasts about gold market:
Whether
gold can reach this high as shown by the latest fund manager forecasts, this
scenario is not completely excluded. Small part of wall street thinks it is
possible, or to move even higher.
Why Gold Is Surging? Key
Drivers
Fed
Dovish Pivot Drives Precious Metals Rally
Samer Hasn,
Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, explained the broader precious metals rally:
“Silver rose by nearly 1% to the highest level in a week, moving beyond 52
dollars per ounce and marking a third consecutive day of gains.”
- Dollar weakness: US dollar declining as
rate cut odds surge, making gold more attractive - Fed dovish pivot: December rate cut
probability jumped to 80%+ from 50% week earlier - Weak US data: Retail sales missed,
Consumer Confidence 88.7 (lowest since May), modest PPI - Federal deficit concerns: Widening deficit driving
safety bid in precious metals - Silver confirmation: Third consecutive gain to
$52.08/oz validates precious metals rally - Technical support: Gold consolidation
$3,900-$4,400 holding with $4,000 + 50 EMA base - Year-to-date gains: Gold up 57.99% YTD, past
month +4.64%
The weak
economic data has dramatically shifted Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Traders now assign over 80% probability to a 25 basis point rate cut at the
December 17-18 FOMC meeting, up sharply from just 50% odds a week earlier. This
dovish pivot comes as delayed economic data, held up by the recent government
shutdown, has consistently fallen below expectations, reinforcing the case for
monetary accommodation.
Gold Price Prediction: 5% of
Wall Street Expect $5,000+
Despite
gold’s strong performance, up 60% year-to-date, institutional sentiment remains
surprisingly muted. The Kobeissi Letter published survey data from Bank of
America revealing that “professional investors can only ignore gold for so
long: Only 5% of global fund managers believe gold prices will exceed $5,000 by
the end of 2026.”
Professional investors can only ignore gold for so long:
Only 5% of global fund managers believe gold prices will exceed $5,000 by the end of 2026.
34% expect gold to trade in the $4,000 to $4,500 range, while 27% think prices will reach $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce.
On the… pic.twitter.com/yIGAnIRcK7
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 23, 2025
The survey breakdown shows:
- 34% expect gold to trade in the
$4,000 to $4,500 range - 27% think prices will reach $4,500
to $5,000 per ounce - 34% see gold prices falling below
$4,000, with 26% anticipating a range of $3,500 to $4,000 - 39% of professional investors in the survey do not own
any gold in their portfolios
“Gold
is also no longer ‘the most crowded’ trade after topping that list for the
first time in October,” The Kobeissi Letter noted. “Wall Street is
still unconvinced about gold.”
Fund Manager Gold Sentiment
Survey
|
Price Range |
Percentage of Managers |
Outlook |
|
Above $5,000 |
5% |
Ultra-bullish |
|
$4,500-$5,000 |
27% |
Moderately bullish |
|
$4,000-$4,500 |
34% |
Neutral to slight bullish |
|
$3,500-$4,000 |
26% |
Moderately bearish |
|
Below $3,500 |
8% |
Bearish |
|
Own No Gold |
39% |
Not positioned |
This
institutional skepticism stands in stark contrast to my technical analysis
showing Fibonacci extension
targets at $5,000 (100% extension) and above $5,500 (161.8% extension)
remaining viable scenarios.
The fact
that only 5% of fund managers expect prices above $5,000 while 39% own no gold
at all suggests significant upside potential if positioning shifts and
institutions belatedly chase the rally.
Goldman Sachs also believes in a strong gold market
and suggests that precious
metal can surge above $5,000 in the next year.
What Comes Next for Gold
Price
The
immediate focus for gold markets is the $4,200-$4,210 resistance zone
identified by analyst Konrad Ryczko. A breakout above this level would likely
open the path toward approaching the recent peaks around $4,370, and from
there, my Fibonacci analysis suggests the round $5,000 level comes into play.
From my
technical perspective, the consolidation range between $3,900 and $4,400 that
has contained prices for the past month provides a healthy base for continued
appreciation. The fact that this range is strengthened from below by the
psychological $4,000 level and the 50-day exponential moving average gives me
confidence that any pullbacks will find support.
Even more
importantly, the very wide support zone between $3,300 and $3,450, where April
through July historical peaks align with the 200-day EMA, means there is
substantial room for technical correction without invalidating the bull trend.
This provides significant downside protection and makes gold attractive on a
risk/reward basis at current levels.
The
December 17-18 Federal Reserve meeting will be the next major catalyst, with
markets pricing in over 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. If the
Fed delivers as expected and maintains a dovish forward guidance, gold should
benefit from continued dollar weakness and real rate considerations.
Conversely, any hawkish surprise could trigger a test of the $3,900
consolidation lower boundary.
Gold Price Analysis, FAQ
Why is gold surging today?
Gold is
surging to $4,167 per ounce (+0.85%) on November 26, 2025 due to dollar
weakness and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations surging to over 80% for
December from 50% a week earlier.
What is gold price
prediction for 2025-2026?
Gold has
targets at $5,000 (100% extension) and above $5,500 (161.8% extension) measured
from July lows to October highs. Analyst Konrad Ryczko sees immediate
resistance test at $4,200-$4,210 with breakout opening path to $4,370 recent
peaks.
Can gold reach $5,000?
Yes,
according to my Fibonacci extension analysis, gold’s 100% extension target from
July-October move points to round $5,000 level, with 161.8% extension above
$5,500. However, only 5% of global fund managers in Kobeissi Letter survey
believe gold will exceed $5,000 by end of 2026, while 39% own no gold at all.
Will gold continue to
rise?
Yes. Gold’s
continued rise depends on Federal Reserve December 17-18 meeting outcome (80%+
probability of 25bp cut priced in), dollar trajectory, and US economic data.
How high can gold go?
Gold has
technical targets at $5,000 (100% extension from July-October move) and above
$5,500 (161.8% extension). However, Kobeissi Letter survey reveals only 5% of
global fund managers expect above $5,000 by end 2026.
Gold price
is rising another session in a row together with the broad precious metals
market, benefiting among other things from dollar weakness during the Wednesday
November 26, 2025 trading session.
We’re
paying $4,167.47 per ounce according to spot pricing, which means a 0.85%
increase compared to yesterday’s close, while the yellow metal reached session
highs at $4,169, the highest levels in nearly two weeks since November 14.
Why is gold
going up today? The rally is primarily driven by a surge in Federal Reserve
rate cut expectations for December, with odds jumping from just 50% a week
earlier to over 80% currently, following a string of weak US economic data that
reinforced accommodation hopes.
Moreover,
some of Wall Street’s global fund managers share a bullish gold price
prediction of $6,000 per ounce by year-end 2026. In this article, I analyze
XAU/USD technical chart to see if it is possible.
According
to my technical analysis, the situation in the gold market has changed little
over the past month, with prices moving in the same consolidation whose lower
boundary marks around $3,900 per ounce and upper boundary reaches toward
historical maximums just below $4,400 per ounce. This consolidation is
additionally strengthened from below by the round $4,000 level and the 50-day
exponential moving average, providing solid technical support.
Gold price today. Source: Tradingview.com
Even if
this range were to be broken to the downside, I would still remain bullishly
positioned on gold prices because a very wide support zone exists in the range
between $3,300 and $3,450 at the height of historical peaks from April and
subsequent months through July.
At this
place, the 200-day exponential moving average (200 EMA) also falls, which
separates the bull trend from the bear trend. So there’s quite a lot of room
for a technical downward correction and then a bounce at more attractive
prices.
Gold Technical Levels
|
Key Level |
Price Zone |
Technical Significance |
|
Current Price |
$4,167 |
Up 0.85%, highest since Nov 14 |
|
Session High |
$4,169 |
Two-week peak |
|
Consolidation Upper |
$4,400 |
Historical highs, resistance boundary |
|
Immediate Resistance |
$4,200-$4,210 |
Local |
|
Consolidation Lower |
$3,900 |
Support boundary, 50 EMA zone |
|
Round Support |
$4,000 |
Psychological level strengthening base |
|
Wide Support Zone |
$3,300-$3,450 |
April-July |
|
100% Fibonacci |
$5,000 |
Extension |
|
161.8% Fibonacci |
$5,500+ |
Ultimate bullish extension target |
How High Can Gold Go?
If we
wanted to forecast gold’s bullish scenario, it’s worth using Fibonacci
extensions here. In my analysis, I measured the upward move from July lows to
the historical highs, then the downward correction observed at the end of
October. Such measurement produces a 100% Fibonacci extension at the round
$5,000 level and a 161.8% extension at a level above $5,500.
Gold price prediction based on my technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com
“The gold
supporting factor is increasingly clear expectations for a December rate cut
from the Fed, especially as yesterday’s delayed macro data fell below
expectations,” Konrad Ryczko, analyst at DM BOŚ, commented.
“Locally
there’s a test of resistance at $4,200-$4,210, whose breakout would most likely
open the path to approach recent peaks around $4,370,” he added.
Check also my other articles and forecasts about gold market:
Whether
gold can reach this high as shown by the latest fund manager forecasts, this
scenario is not completely excluded. Small part of wall street thinks it is
possible, or to move even higher.
Why Gold Is Surging? Key
Drivers
Fed
Dovish Pivot Drives Precious Metals Rally
Samer Hasn,
Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, explained the broader precious metals rally:
“Silver rose by nearly 1% to the highest level in a week, moving beyond 52
dollars per ounce and marking a third consecutive day of gains.”
- Dollar weakness: US dollar declining as
rate cut odds surge, making gold more attractive - Fed dovish pivot: December rate cut
probability jumped to 80%+ from 50% week earlier - Weak US data: Retail sales missed,
Consumer Confidence 88.7 (lowest since May), modest PPI - Federal deficit concerns: Widening deficit driving
safety bid in precious metals - Silver confirmation: Third consecutive gain to
$52.08/oz validates precious metals rally - Technical support: Gold consolidation
$3,900-$4,400 holding with $4,000 + 50 EMA base - Year-to-date gains: Gold up 57.99% YTD, past
month +4.64%
The weak
economic data has dramatically shifted Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Traders now assign over 80% probability to a 25 basis point rate cut at the
December 17-18 FOMC meeting, up sharply from just 50% odds a week earlier. This
dovish pivot comes as delayed economic data, held up by the recent government
shutdown, has consistently fallen below expectations, reinforcing the case for
monetary accommodation.
Gold Price Prediction: 5% of
Wall Street Expect $5,000+
Despite
gold’s strong performance, up 60% year-to-date, institutional sentiment remains
surprisingly muted. The Kobeissi Letter published survey data from Bank of
America revealing that “professional investors can only ignore gold for so
long: Only 5% of global fund managers believe gold prices will exceed $5,000 by
the end of 2026.”
Professional investors can only ignore gold for so long:
Only 5% of global fund managers believe gold prices will exceed $5,000 by the end of 2026.
34% expect gold to trade in the $4,000 to $4,500 range, while 27% think prices will reach $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce.
On the… pic.twitter.com/yIGAnIRcK7
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 23, 2025
The survey breakdown shows:
- 34% expect gold to trade in the
$4,000 to $4,500 range - 27% think prices will reach $4,500
to $5,000 per ounce - 34% see gold prices falling below
$4,000, with 26% anticipating a range of $3,500 to $4,000 - 39% of professional investors in the survey do not own
any gold in their portfolios
“Gold
is also no longer ‘the most crowded’ trade after topping that list for the
first time in October,” The Kobeissi Letter noted. “Wall Street is
still unconvinced about gold.”
Fund Manager Gold Sentiment
Survey
|
Price Range |
Percentage of Managers |
Outlook |
|
Above $5,000 |
5% |
Ultra-bullish |
|
$4,500-$5,000 |
27% |
Moderately bullish |
|
$4,000-$4,500 |
34% |
Neutral to slight bullish |
|
$3,500-$4,000 |
26% |
Moderately bearish |
|
Below $3,500 |
8% |
Bearish |
|
Own No Gold |
39% |
Not positioned |
This
institutional skepticism stands in stark contrast to my technical analysis
showing Fibonacci extension
targets at $5,000 (100% extension) and above $5,500 (161.8% extension)
remaining viable scenarios.
The fact
that only 5% of fund managers expect prices above $5,000 while 39% own no gold
at all suggests significant upside potential if positioning shifts and
institutions belatedly chase the rally.
Goldman Sachs also believes in a strong gold market
and suggests that precious
metal can surge above $5,000 in the next year.
What Comes Next for Gold
Price
The
immediate focus for gold markets is the $4,200-$4,210 resistance zone
identified by analyst Konrad Ryczko. A breakout above this level would likely
open the path toward approaching the recent peaks around $4,370, and from
there, my Fibonacci analysis suggests the round $5,000 level comes into play.
From my
technical perspective, the consolidation range between $3,900 and $4,400 that
has contained prices for the past month provides a healthy base for continued
appreciation. The fact that this range is strengthened from below by the
psychological $4,000 level and the 50-day exponential moving average gives me
confidence that any pullbacks will find support.
Even more
importantly, the very wide support zone between $3,300 and $3,450, where April
through July historical peaks align with the 200-day EMA, means there is
substantial room for technical correction without invalidating the bull trend.
This provides significant downside protection and makes gold attractive on a
risk/reward basis at current levels.
The
December 17-18 Federal Reserve meeting will be the next major catalyst, with
markets pricing in over 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. If the
Fed delivers as expected and maintains a dovish forward guidance, gold should
benefit from continued dollar weakness and real rate considerations.
Conversely, any hawkish surprise could trigger a test of the $3,900
consolidation lower boundary.
Gold Price Analysis, FAQ
Why is gold surging today?
Gold is
surging to $4,167 per ounce (+0.85%) on November 26, 2025 due to dollar
weakness and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations surging to over 80% for
December from 50% a week earlier.
What is gold price
prediction for 2025-2026?
Gold has
targets at $5,000 (100% extension) and above $5,500 (161.8% extension) measured
from July lows to October highs. Analyst Konrad Ryczko sees immediate
resistance test at $4,200-$4,210 with breakout opening path to $4,370 recent
peaks.
Can gold reach $5,000?
Yes,
according to my Fibonacci extension analysis, gold’s 100% extension target from
July-October move points to round $5,000 level, with 161.8% extension above
$5,500. However, only 5% of global fund managers in Kobeissi Letter survey
believe gold will exceed $5,000 by end of 2026, while 39% own no gold at all.
Will gold continue to
rise?
Yes. Gold’s
continued rise depends on Federal Reserve December 17-18 meeting outcome (80%+
probability of 25bp cut priced in), dollar trajectory, and US economic data.
How high can gold go?
Gold has
technical targets at $5,000 (100% extension from July-October move) and above
$5,500 (161.8% extension). However, Kobeissi Letter survey reveals only 5% of
global fund managers expect above $5,000 by end 2026.
