Polymarket traders have raised the probability of former FTX
Chief Executive Sam Bankman-Fried receiving a presidential pardon this year to
12%. The shift follows the recent decision to pardon Binance Chief Executive
Changpeng Zhao.
Digital
assets meet tradfi in London at the fmls25
Trump defended Zhao’s pardon, saying he had been informed
that the Binance founder’s conduct “was not even a crime” and that he had been
“persecuted by the Biden administration.”
Polymarket Bets Double on Bankman-Fried Pardon
Data from Polymarket shows that odds in the market titled
“Who will Trump pardon in 2025” climbed from 5.6% to 12% within half a day. The
total amount wagered in that market has surpassed $6.5 million, with roughly
$302,000 staked on Bankman-Fried, Cointelegraph reported.
Sam Bankman-Freed? pic.twitter.com/caNQ5udKBz
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 23, 2025
In a separate Polymarket contract on whether Bankman-Fried
will be “Released from custody in 2025,” expectations briefly rose from 4.3% to
19.1% before stabilizing around 15.5%.
Bankman-Fried is serving a 25-year sentence for fraud and
conspiracy to commit money laundering. His appeal remains pending, but legal
experts say no major ruling is expected this year. As a result, a presidential
pardon is seen as his only potential avenue for early release before January.
Trump justified his pardon of @cz_binance, stating his belief that Zhao “wasn’t guilty” and was a victim of political “persecution by the Biden administration.” https://t.co/iXTlKH5lKb pic.twitter.com/5Ijme3iqbg
— Karan Singh Arora (@thisisksa) October 24, 2025
Comparisons Emerge Between Zhao and Bankman-Fried
Zhao’s pardon has prompted debate over whether Bankman-Fried
should receive similar leniency. Observers have compared their cases, noting
that Zhao’s offenses involved breaches of U.S. Anti-Money Laundering laws,
while Bankman-Fried was convicted of misappropriating billions in customer
funds. Zhao received a four-month sentence, whereas Bankman-Fried was handed a
25-year term in 2024.
Crypto attorney Jake Chervinsky said he would be “truly
shocked” if the Trump administration granted clemency to Bankman-Fried, citing
his role as a “Democratic mega-donor” before FTX collapsed in late 2022.
This article was written by Tareq Sikder at www.financemagnates.com.
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