Bitcoin
(BTC) price bull market has ended after the cryptocurrency failed to
sustain momentum above $125,000, according to Jon Glover, Elliott
Wave analyst and Chief Investment Officer at Ledn.
His newest
Bitcoin price prediction shows a prolonged bear market potentially driving
prices to $70,000 or lower, representing a 40% decline from current
levels. The bearish call comes after Bitcoin tumbled from a record
$126,198 to $104,000 in mid-October, confirming the completion of a five-wave
bullish structure that began in late 2022.
The
analyst, known for precise market forecasts including his accurate August
prediction of Bitcoin surging toward $125,000 when others turned
bearish, declared that “the bull run in Bitcoin is over” after
the cryptocurrency broke below the critical $108,000 level.
My expectation is that the bear market will see us trading down to $70 – $80k, and potentially lower.
The bear market target will become clearer as we watch the price action unfold in the coming months.
🧵3/4
— Ledn (@hodlwithLedn) October 17, 2025
“I
firmly believe we have completed the five-wave upward move and are now
entering a bear market that may last until at least late 2026,” Glover
stated in his October 17 analysis. “I expect Bitcoin to trade
between $70K and $80K, and possibly even lower.”
According to Glover, Bitcoin price can fall this low. Source: Tradingview.com
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Based on Elliott Wave Theory
Elliott Wave
Theory, introduced
by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938, posits that collective investor psychology
moves in predictable cycles forming a five-wave structure in the direction
of the main trend, three impulse waves and two corrective waves.
Glover
initially projected wave 5 would bring prices between $140,000 and
$150,000 by year-end, making this call in early August against a
backdrop of growing bearish concerns after Bitcoin dipped from $120,000 to
$112,000. While prices surged as forecasted, momentum stalled beyond $125,000
this month. In early October, before the collapse, Glover had warned that
“if we reject a couple of attempts at $125k, then there is merit to
the argument that we will begin a bear market for BTC”.
Source: Ledn
The
subsequent tumble to $105,000 last week confirmed an early end to the
bull run. “Now that we have broken down below $108k, I am ready to
make the call as to whether we are on the orange path in the chart
below and therefore looking for a move up to $145k, or are on the yellow
path, which would mean that we have seen the highs in this market,”
Glover explained in his detailed Twitter thread. “Here’s my call: THE BULL
RUN IN BITCOIN IS OVER!”
Here’s my call: THE BULL RUN IN BITCOIN IS OVER! I firmly believe that we have finished the five wave move higher, and we will now commence a bear market that will last into late 2026 at a minimum.
That’s not to say that we can’t retest the $124k, or even slightly higher, but…
— Ledn (@hodlwithLedn) October 17, 2025
Bitcoin’s Five-Wave Bull
Market Structure (2022-2025)
- Wave
1: Initial rally from $16,500 to $31,000
(December 2022 – April 2023) - Wave
2: Correction to $24,800 support (April – June
2023) - Wave
3: Explosive surge to $73,000 (June 2023 –
March 2024) - Wave
4: Consolidation between $58,000-$72,000
(March – September 2024) - Wave
5: Final push to $126,198 all-time high
(October 2024 – October 2025)
Technical Breakdown Below
$108K Triggers Bearish Call
Glover’s
decision to officially declare the bull market over came after Bitcoin
broke down below $108,000. The “orange path” on his
Elliott Wave chart suggested one final push toward $145,000, while the
“yellow path” indicated the market had already seen its highs.
Based on my
technical evaluation, the breakdown below $108,000 coincided with
failure to maintain position above the 50-day exponential moving average
at $114,222, while the 200-day EMA at $107,762 now serves as
immediate support. The cryptocurrency briefly penetrated this level during
last week’s crash to $103,602, suggesting vulnerability to
deeper correction if support fails decisively.
Glover
explained that while the possibility of Bitcoin retesting record highs around
$124,000 or climbing slightly higher cannot be ruled out, “the
broader trend has now flipped bearish, meaning prices are likely to be lower
a few months from now”. This assessment acknowledges that bear
market rallies often deceive investors with temporary strength before resuming
downward trajectories.
BTC Bear Market Timeline
Extends Through Late 2026
Glover’s
forecast that the bear market “may last until at least late 2026”
suggests a 12-15 month correction period from the
October 2025 peak. This timeline aligns with historical bear market
durations, with the 2022 crypto winter lasting approximately 12 months
(November 2021 to November 2022), the 2018 bear market extending
13 months (December 2017 to January 2019), and the 2014-2015
correction persisting 14 months.
The
extended timeline implies Bitcoin will likely test support multiple times
rather than experiencing a single capitulation event, with the
typical bear market structure involving initial panic selling, a
relief rally that fails at descending resistance, followed by grinding
lower into final lows before accumulation begins.
Institutional
investors and sophisticated traders positioning for downside through September
2026 options expiries—as evidenced by elevated put
premiums—suggests market participants are preparing for prolonged weakness
rather than expecting quick V-shaped recovery.
Macro Factors
Reinforce Bearish Technical Outlook
Beyond
Elliott Wave technicals, multiple macro catalysts support
the case for extended Bitcoin weakness.
Geopolitical Risks:
- Trump’s 100% tariff threat on
China (triggered weekend $18K crash) - Ongoing trade war escalation
through November 1st implementation - Regional banking stress
creating systemic concerns
Monetary Policy:
- Fed holding rates
higher-for-longer contrary to September expectations - Inflation remaining elevated
around 3% reducing rate cut urgency - Higher opportunity cost for
non-yielding assets
Market Structure:
- Overleveraged derivatives ($39B
perpetual futures open interest) - Liquidation cascade
vulnerability in thin liquidity periods - Correlation with equities
creating contagion risk if stocks correct
Bitcoin Price Analysis, FAQ
How low can Bitcoin go
in 2025-2026?
Elliott
Wave analyst Jon Glover forecasts Bitcoin trading between $70,000-$80,000
and potentially lower during a bear market expected to last until at least late
2026, representing a 35-44% decline from the October 2025 peak at
$126,198, with Glover stating “I expect bitcoin to trade between
$70K and $80K, and possibly even lower”.
Will Bitcoin crash to
$70,000?
Glover
firmly believes Bitcoin’s five-wave bull market structure completed in
October 2025, declaring “the bull run in Bitcoin is over” after
breakdown below $108,000 triggered bearish Elliott Wave count expecting
12-15 month correction toward $70,000-$80,000 range, supported by Deribit
options showing elevated put premiums through September 2026 and
historical halving cycle patterns.
What causes Bitcoin price
crashes?
Bitcoin
crashes result from completion of Elliott Wave impulsive structures
triggering corrective patterns, overleveraged derivatives positions forcing
liquidations ($530.9M and $366.6M consecutive daily ETF outflows),
geopolitical catalysts (Trump 100% China tariffs), technical breakdowns
below key moving averages, institutional profit-taking after 665% gains, and
historical four-year halving cycle patterns consistently showing 18-month peaks
followed by prolonged corrections.
Should I sell Bitcoin now?
Bitcoin
trading at $110,507 faces bearish Elliott Wave structure with Glover
warning “the broader trend has now flipped bearish, meaning prices
are likely to be lower a few months from now,” though invalidation of
bearish count requires sustained move above
$115,000-$120,000, creating binary outcome requiring careful risk
assessment reflecting individual risk tolerance and investment timeline.
Bitcoin
(BTC) price bull market has ended after the cryptocurrency failed to
sustain momentum above $125,000, according to Jon Glover, Elliott
Wave analyst and Chief Investment Officer at Ledn.
His newest
Bitcoin price prediction shows a prolonged bear market potentially driving
prices to $70,000 or lower, representing a 40% decline from current
levels. The bearish call comes after Bitcoin tumbled from a record
$126,198 to $104,000 in mid-October, confirming the completion of a five-wave
bullish structure that began in late 2022.
The
analyst, known for precise market forecasts including his accurate August
prediction of Bitcoin surging toward $125,000 when others turned
bearish, declared that “the bull run in Bitcoin is over” after
the cryptocurrency broke below the critical $108,000 level.
My expectation is that the bear market will see us trading down to $70 – $80k, and potentially lower.
The bear market target will become clearer as we watch the price action unfold in the coming months.
🧵3/4
— Ledn (@hodlwithLedn) October 17, 2025
“I
firmly believe we have completed the five-wave upward move and are now
entering a bear market that may last until at least late 2026,” Glover
stated in his October 17 analysis. “I expect Bitcoin to trade
between $70K and $80K, and possibly even lower.”
According to Glover, Bitcoin price can fall this low. Source: Tradingview.com
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Based on Elliott Wave Theory
Elliott Wave
Theory, introduced
by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938, posits that collective investor psychology
moves in predictable cycles forming a five-wave structure in the direction
of the main trend, three impulse waves and two corrective waves.
Glover
initially projected wave 5 would bring prices between $140,000 and
$150,000 by year-end, making this call in early August against a
backdrop of growing bearish concerns after Bitcoin dipped from $120,000 to
$112,000. While prices surged as forecasted, momentum stalled beyond $125,000
this month. In early October, before the collapse, Glover had warned that
“if we reject a couple of attempts at $125k, then there is merit to
the argument that we will begin a bear market for BTC”.
Source: Ledn
The
subsequent tumble to $105,000 last week confirmed an early end to the
bull run. “Now that we have broken down below $108k, I am ready to
make the call as to whether we are on the orange path in the chart
below and therefore looking for a move up to $145k, or are on the yellow
path, which would mean that we have seen the highs in this market,”
Glover explained in his detailed Twitter thread. “Here’s my call: THE BULL
RUN IN BITCOIN IS OVER!”
Here’s my call: THE BULL RUN IN BITCOIN IS OVER! I firmly believe that we have finished the five wave move higher, and we will now commence a bear market that will last into late 2026 at a minimum.
That’s not to say that we can’t retest the $124k, or even slightly higher, but…
— Ledn (@hodlwithLedn) October 17, 2025
Bitcoin’s Five-Wave Bull
Market Structure (2022-2025)
- Wave
1: Initial rally from $16,500 to $31,000
(December 2022 – April 2023) - Wave
2: Correction to $24,800 support (April – June
2023) - Wave
3: Explosive surge to $73,000 (June 2023 –
March 2024) - Wave
4: Consolidation between $58,000-$72,000
(March – September 2024) - Wave
5: Final push to $126,198 all-time high
(October 2024 – October 2025)
Technical Breakdown Below
$108K Triggers Bearish Call
Glover’s
decision to officially declare the bull market over came after Bitcoin
broke down below $108,000. The “orange path” on his
Elliott Wave chart suggested one final push toward $145,000, while the
“yellow path” indicated the market had already seen its highs.
Based on my
technical evaluation, the breakdown below $108,000 coincided with
failure to maintain position above the 50-day exponential moving average
at $114,222, while the 200-day EMA at $107,762 now serves as
immediate support. The cryptocurrency briefly penetrated this level during
last week’s crash to $103,602, suggesting vulnerability to
deeper correction if support fails decisively.
Glover
explained that while the possibility of Bitcoin retesting record highs around
$124,000 or climbing slightly higher cannot be ruled out, “the
broader trend has now flipped bearish, meaning prices are likely to be lower
a few months from now”. This assessment acknowledges that bear
market rallies often deceive investors with temporary strength before resuming
downward trajectories.
BTC Bear Market Timeline
Extends Through Late 2026
Glover’s
forecast that the bear market “may last until at least late 2026”
suggests a 12-15 month correction period from the
October 2025 peak. This timeline aligns with historical bear market
durations, with the 2022 crypto winter lasting approximately 12 months
(November 2021 to November 2022), the 2018 bear market extending
13 months (December 2017 to January 2019), and the 2014-2015
correction persisting 14 months.
The
extended timeline implies Bitcoin will likely test support multiple times
rather than experiencing a single capitulation event, with the
typical bear market structure involving initial panic selling, a
relief rally that fails at descending resistance, followed by grinding
lower into final lows before accumulation begins.
Institutional
investors and sophisticated traders positioning for downside through September
2026 options expiries—as evidenced by elevated put
premiums—suggests market participants are preparing for prolonged weakness
rather than expecting quick V-shaped recovery.
Macro Factors
Reinforce Bearish Technical Outlook
Beyond
Elliott Wave technicals, multiple macro catalysts support
the case for extended Bitcoin weakness.
Geopolitical Risks:
- Trump’s 100% tariff threat on
China (triggered weekend $18K crash) - Ongoing trade war escalation
through November 1st implementation - Regional banking stress
creating systemic concerns
Monetary Policy:
- Fed holding rates
higher-for-longer contrary to September expectations - Inflation remaining elevated
around 3% reducing rate cut urgency - Higher opportunity cost for
non-yielding assets
Market Structure:
- Overleveraged derivatives ($39B
perpetual futures open interest) - Liquidation cascade
vulnerability in thin liquidity periods - Correlation with equities
creating contagion risk if stocks correct
Bitcoin Price Analysis, FAQ
How low can Bitcoin go
in 2025-2026?
Elliott
Wave analyst Jon Glover forecasts Bitcoin trading between $70,000-$80,000
and potentially lower during a bear market expected to last until at least late
2026, representing a 35-44% decline from the October 2025 peak at
$126,198, with Glover stating “I expect bitcoin to trade between
$70K and $80K, and possibly even lower”.
Will Bitcoin crash to
$70,000?
Glover
firmly believes Bitcoin’s five-wave bull market structure completed in
October 2025, declaring “the bull run in Bitcoin is over” after
breakdown below $108,000 triggered bearish Elliott Wave count expecting
12-15 month correction toward $70,000-$80,000 range, supported by Deribit
options showing elevated put premiums through September 2026 and
historical halving cycle patterns.
What causes Bitcoin price
crashes?
Bitcoin
crashes result from completion of Elliott Wave impulsive structures
triggering corrective patterns, overleveraged derivatives positions forcing
liquidations ($530.9M and $366.6M consecutive daily ETF outflows),
geopolitical catalysts (Trump 100% China tariffs), technical breakdowns
below key moving averages, institutional profit-taking after 665% gains, and
historical four-year halving cycle patterns consistently showing 18-month peaks
followed by prolonged corrections.
Should I sell Bitcoin now?
Bitcoin
trading at $110,507 faces bearish Elliott Wave structure with Glover
warning “the broader trend has now flipped bearish, meaning prices
are likely to be lower a few months from now,” though invalidation of
bearish count requires sustained move above
$115,000-$120,000, creating binary outcome requiring careful risk
assessment reflecting individual risk tolerance and investment timeline.
